The hottest search for certainty, the average grow

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Looking for certainty: the average growth rate of net profits of steel and nonferrous metals exceeded

* ST Valin has recently ushered in a dramatic scene, with losses in the financial assets it plans to put in, but the main steel business continues to recover, and finally the company chose to terminate the restructuring

more surprisingly, the company's recent performance forecast shows that it is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.3 billion yuan in the first half of this year, which is also the best performance since the company was listed

under the dual effects of low base and high commodity prices in 2016, the profitability of cyclical industries continued to improve in the second quarter of this year, but some industries were more obviously affected by the relationship between cost and product price

according to the performance forecast statistics released by the 21st Century Business Herald in July, the lower limit of the average profit growth of the five strong cyclical industries of steel, coal, nonferrous metals, chemical industry and cement reached 369.5%. Although some "good students" rushed ahead to increase the average growth rate of the industry, there is no suspense about the "deterministic" growth of cyclical stocks

"after the weakening of real estate and infrastructure investment, as well as the tightening of capital, the driving force for bulk commodities will also be correspondingly weakened, so it is difficult to have a systematic rise in the second half of the year", Jing Chuan, chief economist of CUHK futures, pointed out on July 11, but some products that match the supply and demand relationship will usher in a structural market

cycle rule superimposed environmental protection inspection

facing the home appliance and Baijiu industries with rising valuations, the market began to turn its attention to the strong cycle industries with the same "certainty", and a consensus was reached on this fund recently

"before the change of steel stocks, I chose Bayi Steel, mainly because it accounts for a relatively high proportion of rebar production, and it is also a regional leader with the theme of the the Belt and Road." A private placement person in Chengdu who is also engaged in stocks and futures recently told

however, he did not wait for the opportunity to get on the bus. The share price of Bayi Iron and steel has risen 39.23% in just six trading days this month

although Bayi Iron and steel has not issued a performance forecast as of July 11, the growth of the steel industry has been very certain. Statistics show that the lower limit of the average net profit growth of the five listed steel enterprises disclosed since July has reached 236%, of which three companies, including Minguang of Sansteel, have made profits of 1billion yuan

judging from the current market, the profit of steel enterprises in the second quarter is higher than that in the first quarter. The industry has long predicted that this is mainly due to the poor performance of raw materials such as iron ore and the relatively strong impact of steel prices

in contrast, although the performance of coal and non-ferrous industries has also increased, it is more like "eating old money". This is because thermal coal and base metals have been adjusted continuously in April and may this year, and they did not rebound slightly until June

however, since the effect of supply side reform on the coal industry began in the second half of 2016, the operating conditions of coal enterprises in the first half of last year were generally price differentials, and the profit base was relatively low. In addition, now the coal price is at a high level, resulting in an astonishing increase of 5.4 billion yuan in the half year profit of Shaanxi coal industry

the situation of non-ferrous industry is similar. The forecast profit growth of western mining and Jianxin mining also reached 730% and 283% respectively

it should be noted that cobalt and other small metals have also increased significantly this year. Although relevant companies have not yet predicted their performance, their profits will probably increase several times

in addition to the above industries that are periodically affected by supply side reform, some industries that are subject to environmental protection inspection and have problems at the supply side also have very definite performance growth

"cement is greatly affected by environmental protection inspection. In the first quarter of this year, the whole industry made a profit of 6.5 billion yuan, but in April, the single month profit reached 7.1 billion yuan. This month may have the data of May, which is expected to be similar to that of April", houlinlin, an analyst of zhuochuang information cement industry, told on the 11th

Qilian Mountain announced on the evening of July 10 that the company turned losses into profits in the first half of the year and realized a net profit of about 180million yuan

another typical case is titanium dioxide. After adjustment in June, the price has risen again recently

Panzhihua tihai technology and other three companies issued price adjustment letters on July 7 and 10 respectively, and raised the price of rutile titanium dioxide by 500 yuan/ton

"structural rise" is expected

as most of the products in the above industries are basic industrial raw materials, the efficiency is high, the production cost is relatively stable, and the profit is mainly affected by product price fluctuations. This month, the raw material market resumed its upward trend, which means that the profits of the cycle industry will increase again

"at the macro level, the data is good, which brings the expectation of economic growth and increased demand to the market, but this is mainly a continuation of last year's real estate investment and loose liquidity, but this year, the real estate regulation policy has been continued, and the capital side is also tightening", Jingchuan analysis said, so whether the third quarter can continue to improve is uncertain

he pointed out that consumption drives the economy relatively slowly, and the driving force for the commodity market will be weakened under the background of no new growth points to replace and the weakening of real estate and infrastructure investment

it is noteworthy that real estate and other "skirt" industries are the main consumption terminals of the aforementioned cyclical industries, such as rebar and cement as building materials, and titanium dioxide downstream as coating enterprises

Liu Bin, deputy general manager of CITIC futures investment consulting department, pointed out that the new type of recycled plastic granulator has been continuously optimized and updated. "Recently, the central bank suspended the open market operation for many days, which shows that the monetary policy remains neutral, so the capital side is not conducive to the overall rise of commodities, but the impact of industry supply and demand on prices will be more obvious."

in other words, systematic market is difficult to appear, but the supply-demand relationship with commodities will rise structurally, so which industries have this feature? This requires further segmentation of the industry

"among the base metals, zinc and aluminum are affected by resources and environmental protection factors, and some problems have occurred in the upstream supply, which has brought some support to their prices, while nickel has been greatly hit by some substitution at the supply end." Jingchuan said

Hou Linlin pointed out that most provinces are planning to stagger peak production in the third quarter. Coupled with environmental protection inspection, the cement supply is greatly affected, but even if the demand cannot reach the level in 2016, it will be equivalent to that in 2015. "It is expected that the cement price will continue to maintain a high level in the third quarter, and even rise slightly in the fourth quarter."

in addition, some chemicals are also expected to maintain a rising trend, such as tight supply of polymeric MDI, nitrile rubber, and PVC with limited upstream construction and downstream peak demand season

however, not all raw materials will increase the profits of corresponding industries, which involves a problem of cost, product price comparison, and different links in the industrial chain

at present, the inventory pressure of coke enterprises is not high, and the operating rate of downstream blast furnaces is at a high level. The market mining anlimu is the Chief Strategic Officer of 5 Argo, and the purchasing situation is good, so there may be a low-level make-up

if the prices of iron ore and coke rise in the future, it will squeeze the existing high profits of the iron and steel industry, and the profitability of coking enterprises will be significantly improved accordingly

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